Franklin will make landfall first in the Yucatan peninsula early Tuesday morning, then reemerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday morning. Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to fly over the system Monday.
We've now entered the portion of hurricane season when every potential system must be watched closely for development and potential impacts to land.
Expect warm and very muggy conditions for tonight. As of this writing, it looks to be on the verge of development, with heavy thunderstorm activity firing near the perceived center of the developing system.
Franklin formed quickly Sunday evening, going from a tropical wave in the afternoon, to a depression in the evening, and becoming a tropical storm around 10 p.m.
Winds of 40 miles per hour or greater may begin in the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize as soon as Monday afternoon.
The tropical wave is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche by mid-week. Tracking northwest across the Atlantic and moving around 15 miles per hour Sunday afternoon, that system has a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm or depression over the next five days. So far there have been no hurricanes. In a comparison, an average hurricane season has only 12 named storms and three major hurricanes. The late William Gray, professor in the department of atmospheric science for more than 40 years, launched the report in 1984. United States landfalling hurricane activity is also forecast to be above-norm.
Michael Bell, associate professor in the department of atmospheric science at CSU and co-author of the report, cautioned coastal residents to take proper precautions.
A risky storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the centre makes landfall.