Meanwhile, the North Sea crude oil market is showing signs of long-lost strength, suggesting that some of the pessimism that has driven down oil futures and created a record bet against a price rise may be unjustified. However, 70 percent would not rule out a further drop into the $30s. This was the first weekly drop since January 13 and though a mild one, could give pause to assumptions of a continued rally in USA tight oil output even with WTI in the low $40s.
Even if Russian pipeline export is also declining, it can have only a slight effect on global prices due to the influence of other factors.
The bank cut its average 2017 and 2018 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price outlook to $47 per barrel and $50 per barrel, from $52 and $53 respectively.
The price of the WTI crude last Thursday appreciated marginally to US$45.10; below expectations thus discounting the OPEC and non-OPEC cuts. That helped support the argument that shale producers may have stumbled amid a prolonged patch of low prices.
"We expect this will leave prices trading near $45 (a barrel) until there is evidence of a decline in the USA horizontal oil rig count, sustained stock draws or additional OPEC production cuts", they said in the note. Trading volume was low ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday weekend. Oil is down about 9 percent this quarter. We are looking at the others to do their part as well. The market "is still very oversupplied".
Some say USA production may slow further as drilling costs are expected to rise, eroding margins and returns. Production is near a two-year high. "He "gets" it; few others around him do", Garman wrote.
Saudi Arabia provided 34.859m barrels, or 40.4 per cent of the total, while Kuwait, Qatar, Russia and Iran, provided 8 per cent, 6.7 per cent, 6.9 per cent and 5.8 per cent respectively. State National Oil Corp. "Not to disturb or disrupt OPEC at all, or the prices, but it is our right to have our production that corresponds to our reserves", he said.
Venezuela reported to OPEC - where Venezuela is a founding member - that its production was 2.235 million barrels per day in March 2017. According to the CNBC survey, 60 percent say President Donald Trump's pro-energy policies have had no effect on prices, but 33 percent say they have hurt prices a little and seven percent see a large negative impact.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that oil production in Libya in May reached its peak since 2014, having increased from 190,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day in April.